Sunday, November 13, 2011

Is it reasonable to believe you won't be hit by a hurricane two years in a row if last two were 41 years apart?

In terms of determining whether or not a location will see a landfalling hurricane in a given year it is impossible to say. With regards to Florida there have been years where Florida was not hit by any hurricanes and other years where it was hit by a few. The atmospheric patterns that are "well" set up for the storms to hit Florida one year and may not so well set up the next (or for any other location). It is impossible to predict those things in advance due to how rapidly weather conditions can change across the globe (even the large scale weather patterns can change a bunch between forecast and actual occurrence). You cannot bank on a coastal location in the U.S. not getting hit by a hurricane even if the last time it was affected was several decades ago.

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